Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 82699.294838 87293.550240 91885.721963 96816.945857 101959.053133 107159.630881 112813.553922
2025-01-05 75238.846006 82282.217705 89518.909649 97499.650349 106043.551115 114905.575264 124781.915942
2025-01-12 69478.929445 78156.730115 87269.068367 97529.852954 108740.475848 120595.241416 134057.034245
2025-01-19 64872.689143 74738.017909 85289.091226 97378.194909 110810.366216 125240.819617 141879.142410
2025-01-26 62407.954112 73380.502355 85300.351348 99159.624568 114777.136446 131777.598212 151627.561795
2025-02-02 60341.513789 72265.181614 85400.712636 100874.242236 118529.405830 137971.488219 160923.489966
2025-02-09 57994.201464 70659.569531 84795.674281 101650.996721 121105.162821 142756.868987 168575.466428
2025-02-16 55365.797622 68577.992242 83509.446968 101519.106864 122532.310712 146153.260160 174585.653289
2025-02-23 53374.424097 67131.421712 82859.148371 102031.311320 124624.350291 150252.898711 181365.772582
2025-03-02 51317.568600 65506.346118 81909.148717 102108.300041 126138.272846 153632.853172 187281.033294
2025-03-09 50073.285264 64790.590379 81978.231268 103340.247500 128972.662306 158529.594354 194964.374809
2025-03-16 48004.818239 62987.998896 80669.861244 102854.676296 129708.000691 160917.845550 199672.489927
2025-03-23 47062.195594 62557.670016 81021.869751 104390.895380 132905.500314 166285.967394 208013.133905
2025-03-30 45865.037344 61766.174450 80898.287307 105323.913406 135366.269475 170787.076492 215356.834845
2025-04-06 44321.528871 60480.843014 80114.899575 105401.335960 136751.778671 173979.098539 221129.391335
2025-04-13 42763.118185 59119.390471 79185.150890 105249.749062 137817.731426 176759.596022 226395.113435
2025-04-20 42265.335198 59092.965742 79909.211928 107148.204890 141411.290217 182622.723297 235435.003532
2025-04-27 41769.319603 59043.149602 80584.458903 108973.486576 144913.512099 188388.173276 244389.555816
2025-05-04 40855.238589 58411.942057 80489.719244 109800.141275 147152.824443 192600.201825 251453.085030
2025-05-11 39564.386121 57241.236831 79664.069370 109659.824616 148147.716325 195257.815680 256595.859317
2025-05-18 38632.304934 56517.654434 79390.071964 110204.837083 149995.057927 198970.264218 263057.104895
2025-05-25 37551.040481 55559.344551 78779.295095 110286.754629 151231.660665 201909.338660 268557.281695
2025-06-01 37024.981387 55335.793326 79119.507538 111597.453897 154042.370285 206835.293316 276572.266115